October 21-31 2006 - The African portion of the ITCZ was located near 12.8 degrees north latitude, when averaged from 15W-35E. This position was around 0.5 degrees north of the climatological mean, and nearly two degrees south from its position during the second ten days of October. In the west (from 10W-10E), the ITCZ was located near 13.5N, compared with the mean location of around 12.9N, and a position last year of 12.0N. In the east (20E-35E), the ITCZ was located near 12.8N, compared with a climatological mean of 11.4N, and a position last year of near 10.7N. The latest movement of the convergence zone typifies the southward retreat during the final stages of October. One can expect the ITCZ to continue a rapid progression to the south in the weeks to come. Note that this is NOAA's final analysis of the year. The rain line based monitoring will begin Nov 1 2006, and NOAA's monitoring will resume during April 1 2007.

October 1-10 2006 - The African portion of the Intertropical Convergence Zone was located near 15.3 degrees north latitude, which is slightly north of the climatological mean of 15.1N. During the period, the ITCZ continued to move to the south moving almost uniformly by about 1 degree. In the west, averaged from 10W-10E, the ITCZ was located near 16.0N, which was its position last year, and is only 0.1 of a degree north of its climatological mean. In the east, averaged from 20E-35E, the ITCZ was near 14.4N, compared with a normal position of 14.0N and a position last year of around 13.9N.

September 21-30 2006 - The African portion of the Intertropical Convergence Zone was located near 16.7 degrees north latitude, compared to the climatological mean of around 15.9N. It is apparent from the figure that the ITCZ exhibited much of its movement during the past ten days in the western region of the continent, as rainfall trends followed accordingly. In the west, averaged from 10W-10E, the ITCZ was located near 17.1N, compared with a normal position of 16.7N and a position last year of around 17.0N. In the east, averaged from 20E-35E, the ITCZ was near 16.3N, compared with a normal position of 14.7N and a position last year of around 15.1N. During the last period, the ITCZ in this region actually moved slightly to the north, to the tune of around half of a degree.

September 11-20 2006 - The African portion of the ITCZ was located near 17.2 degrees north latitude when averaged from 15 degrees west to 35 degrees east longitude and over the ten day period. This compares to the normal position of around 16.8 degrees north, and a position last year near 15.7 north. The ITCZ was nearly stationary during the previous ten days, when averaged over the entire Sahel. Examining the western region, from 10W-10E, latest ITCZ position was around 18.2N, compared to a normal position of 17.7N. In this region, the ITCZ moved around 0.2 degrees south from the previous period. In the east, from 20E-35E, the ITCZ was located near 16.0N, compared with a 1988-2005 mean position of 15.5N. When averaged over this eastern region, the ITCZ did not move substantially compared to the first ten days of September.

September 1-10 2006 - The African portion of the ITD was located near 17.3 degrees north latitude, which is very close to the climatological average position, and one tenth of a degree south of its position last year. Overall, the ITD moved southward around 1.6 degrees during the previous period. In the west (from 10W-10E), the ITD was located near 18.4 degrees north latitude, only one tenth of a degree north of its normal position during the same period. In the east (from 20E-35E), the ITD was located near 16.0 degrees north, and very close to the climatological mean position.

August 21-31 2006 - The African section of the Intertropical Convergence Zone remained anomalously north of normal during the period. During he final part of August the ITCZ was located near 18.9 degrees north latitude, or 0.7 degrees north of normal compared to the 1988-2005 climatological mean of 18.2 degrees north. Last year at this time the ITCZ was at 18.0N. In the east (20-35E), the ITCZ has moved south, but remained north of normal in Sudan and was near normal across most of the east. In the west (10W-10E), the ITCZ has returned to normal in most areas, drifting north in Mali and Niger, and slightly south in Mauritania. Currently the western portion of the African ITCZ is located near 20.0N, while it is normally located near 19.3N, and was located at 18.8N last year. Meanwhile the eastern section of the African ITCZ is located near 17.6N, while the normal is 16.6N and last year it was at 17.3.

August 11-20 2006 - The African portion of the Intertropical Convergence Zone continued to push northward as it reached its climatological maximum. The ITCZ was located near 18.3 degrees north latitude, or 0.4 degrees south of normal compared to the 1988-2005 climatological mean of 18.7 degrees north. Last year at this time the ITCZ was at 18.8N. In the east (20-35E), the ITCZ has moved north of normal in Sudan. Otherwise the ITCZ is approximately normal. In the west (10W-10E), the ITCZ has remained below normal over Mauritania and Mali. Currently the western portion of the African ITCZ is located near 18.7N, while it is normally located near 19.5N, and was located at 19.4N last year. Meanwhile the eastern ITCZ is located near 18.0N, while the normal is 17.5N and last year it was at 17.9N.

August 1-10 2006 - The African portion of the Intertropical Convergence Zone was located near 17.3 degrees north latitude, or 1.2 degrees south of normal compared to the 1988-2005 climatological mean of 18.5 degrees north. Last year at this time the ITCZ was at 19.0N. In the west (10W-10E), the ITCZ rebounded as has begun to return to a normal position. However, it still remains south of normal throughout most of Africa. In the east (20-35E), the ITCZ has remained closer to normal, especially over Sudan. Currently the eastern portion of the African ITCZ is located near 16.5N, while it is normally located near 17.3N, and was located at 18.6N last year.

July 21-31 2006 - The African portion of the Intertropical Convergence Zone was located near 17.3 degrees north latitude, compared to the 1988-2005 climatological mean of 18.3 degrees north, and a position last year of 18.1N. This location is 0.1 degrees north from the previous period. In the west (10W-10E), the ITCZ was pushed south by strong northwesterly winds, especially over Mauritania. However, since the air was from off of the ocean it contained high amounts of moisture. As a result, significant rains fell north of the ITCZ. The ITCZ was located near 18.3N, compared with a normal position of 19.3N and a position last year of 18.5N. In the east (20-35E), the ITCZ was located near 16.5N, while it is normally located near 16.6N, and was located at 18.0N last year.

July 11-20 2006 - From July 11-20 2006, the African portion of the Intertropical Convergence Zone was located near 17.2 degrees north latitude, compared to the 1988-2005 climatological mean of 17.6 degrees north, and a position last year of 18.2N. This location is 0.8 degrees north from the previous period. In the west (10W-10E), the ITCZ was located near 18.6N, compared with a normal position of 18.7N and a position last year of 19.4N. In the east (20-35E), the ITCZ was located near 15.5N, while it is normally located near 16.1N, and was located at 17.2N last year.

July 1-10 2006 - The African portion of the Intertropical Convergence Zone was located near 16.4 degrees north latitude (averaged from 15W-35E) during the period from July 1-10 2006, compared to the normal position of 16.7 north and a position last year of 18.1 north. Overall, the African region near the ITCZ was abnormally dry during the latest period, though much of Sudan and Ethiopia were exceptionally wet. While localized biases exist in ITCZ position, there is no clear trend that would explain this lack of rainfall based solely on the ITCZ. In the west (from 10W-10E), the ITCZ was located near 17.9 degrees north during the past ten days, compared to a normal position of 17.8 north and a position last period of 16.1 north. The eastern Africa region (20E-35E) saw the ITCZ located near 14.7 degrees north during July 1-10 2006, compared to a 1988-2005 mean of 15.3N and a position last period of 14.4N.

June 21-30 2006 - The African section of the ITCZ is near normal over all, but is slightly south of normal in Niger and Mali. During the period from June 21 - 30 2006, the ITCZ was located near 15.36 degrees north latitude when averaged from 15W-35E and over the ten day period. This compares with a position last period of around 15.0N, a position last year of around 15.89N, and a 1988-2005 climatological mean of 15.79N. Therefore, the current ITCZ is located ~0.36 degrees north of it position last period, but ~0.53 degrees south of last year, and ~0.43 degrees south of normal. In the western areas (10W-10E), the ITCZ moved only slightly north during the current period, and is currently located near 16.1N compared with a normal location of 16.8N. In the east (from 20E-35E), the ITCZ did not move and remained near 14.4 degrees, which is near normal.

June 11-20 2006 - The African section of the ITCZ remains slightly below normal in the west, and slightly above normal in the east. During the period from June 11 - 20 2006, the ITCZ was located near 15.0 degrees north latitude when averaged from 15W-35E and over the ten day period. This compares with a position last period of around 14.48N, a position last year of around 15.98N, and a 1988-2005 climatological mean of 15.2N. Therefore, the current ITCZ is located ~0.52 degrees north of it position last period, but ~0.98 degrees south of last year, and ~0.78 degrees south of normal. In the western areas (10W-10E), the ITCZ moved approximately 0.2 degrees north during the current period, and is currently located near 15.8N compared with a normal location of 16.3N. In the east (from 20E-35E), the ITCZ moved around 1.0 degree to the north during the past period, and is located near 14.4N compared with the normal location of 13.9N.

June 1-10 2006 - The African portion of the ITCZ was located near 14.48 degrees north latitude when averaged from 15W-35E and over the ten day period. This compares with a position last period of around 13.6N, a position last year of around 15.6N, and a 1988-2005 climatological mean of 14.86N. Therefore, the current ITCZ is located ~0.9 degrees north of it position last period, but ~1.1 degrees south of last year, and ~0.3 degrees south of normal. In the western areas (10W-10E), the ITCZ moved approximately 0.8 degrees north during the current period, and is currently located near 15.6N compared with a normal location of 15.9N. In the east (from 20E-35E), the ITCZ moved around 0.8 degrees to the north during the past period, and is located near 13.4N compared with the normal location of 13.5N.

May 21-31 2006 - The African portion of the Intertropical Convergence Zone was located near 13.6 degrees north latitude when averaged from 15W-35E over the ten day period. This compares to the normal location of 14.2N, and a position during the previous period of 13.5N. Areas to the west of Nigeria as well as to the east, are experiencing close to normal ITCZ position values when comparing it to the climatological mean. The current position has taken a jump to the north along the western half of Africa and has dipped to the south along the eastern half of Africa when comparing it to last period's analysis. This ITCZ movement corresponds well with rainfall patterns. For the area of 20-35 degrees east, after beginning the season well south of normal, the ITCZ rapidly moved northward last period and has now dipped back down to the south near normal.

May 11-20 2006 - The African portion of the Intertropical Convergence Zone was located near 13.5 degrees north latitude when averaged from 15W-35E over the ten day period. This compares to the normal location of 13.3N, and a position during the previous period of 12.8N. While the current position averaged over the entire region is near normal, there are significant differences in the western and eastern zones. To the west of Nigeria, areas are experiencing a slight southward bias of the ITCZ position when comparing it to the climatological mean, and to the east of Nigeria, areas are seeing a more northward bias of the ITCZ position. The current position corresponds to rainfall patterns well, especially in the east where the ITCZ seems to have taken a slight jump to the north. For the area of 20-35 degrees east, it is seen that after beginning the season well south of normal, the ITCZ has rapidly moved northward and is now located north of the long term mean normal for the period.

May 1-10 2006 - The African portion of the Intertropical Convergence Zone was located near 12.8 degrees north latitude when averaged from 15W-35E over the ten day period. This compares to the normal location of 12.7N, and a position during the previous period of 11.7N. While the current position averaged over the entire region is near normal, there are significant differences in the western and eastern zones. Generally areas east of Nigeria are experiencing northward biased ITCZ positions, and areas to the west are experiencing southward biases. These correspond to rainfall anomalies for the period well: For the area of 20-35 degrees east, it is seen that after beginning the season well south of normal, the ITCZ has rapidly moved northward and is now located north of the long term mean normal for the period.

April 21-30 2006 - The Africa portion of the ITCZ was located near 11.68 degrees north latitude when averaged from 15W-35E, compared with the long term 1988-2005 mean of around 11.18 degrees north. It may be noted that the current ITCZ shows a slight southward bias compared to the climatological average, however this week's mean ITCZ line looks more like the overall normal for this time of year. Precipitation in the region follows the discontinuity location fairly well during the current period as well. In the west (from 10W-10E), the current ITCZ was located near 13.2N, compared with the long term mean of 13.3N during the same period. Much of this bias is seen east of the Prime Meridian as we have seen over the past few weeks. In the east (from 20E-35E), the current ITCZ position is near 9.9N, compared with the long term mean of 10.8 degrees north. This time last year the mean for the same location was further north around 12.0N.

April 11-20 2006 - The Africa portion of the ITCZ was located near 10.23 degrees north latitude when averaged from 15W-35E, compared with the long term 1988-2005 mean of around 11.24 degrees north. It may be noted that the current ITCZ exhibits a strong southward bias compared to the climatological average. Precipitation in the region follows the discontinuity location fairly well during the current period, with an overall lack of rains in northern Nigeria, CAR, and southern Sudan. Portions of southern Mali saw unusually heavy rainfall during the period. In the west (from 10W-10E), the current ITCZ was located near 11.8N, compared with the long term mean of 12.5 during the same period. Much of this bias is seen east of the Prime Meridian, especially over Nigeria. In the east (from 20E-35E), the current ITCZ position is near 8.0N, compared with the long term mean of 9.9 degrees north.

April 1-10 2006 - NOAA has changed their URL slightly to:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/ITCZ/itcz.shtml